Another week has passed and it was another week without me watching Secret Story NL. In the third week I did a prediction partly based on compassion, got it wrong and therefor I stopped watching. I should be able to trust the social media monitoring tools. So last week I wanted to be bold. Follow the one variable I could have counted on for the past four week: fan base. But then Sofia wanted to leave the house and I couldn’t test if the variable is still the key indicator. This week the difference in fan base is a lot clearer than the first four weeks so the prediction of elimination round #5 should be very straightforward. We will see if I am right this week and if the fan base still is a clear indicator.

Will Servio survive again?
The only time my prediction was off was when I thought Servio would leave the house. But his fan base came through and kept him in the show. His fan base was larger then and much more active on Twitter. So Servio could stay in week 3 and Maik had to go. Strangely enough he is still in the house for unknown reasons. But this week the danger zone seems to be very clear for Servio. This week his fan base is the smallest of them all.

Clearly Philip is in the lead and is growing his fan base the fastest for the last days. Guido is stabilizing, but still far ahead of Servio.

What could go wrong? Well the fan base of Servio proved itself to be very strong in the third week. They go start voting and campaign like crazy and pull of a stunt. Philip, just like Laura, has proven himself very popular. Therefor the struggle will be between Servio en Guido.

My prediction for this week:
3. Servio (will be eliminated)
2. Guido
1. Philip

I said it would be a week for boldness. The person with the smallest fan base has been eliminated for four weeks in a row. Therefor it should be obvious that Servio will leave the Secret Story house tonight. Philip will, for the second time, gather the most votes and Guido will be ok. There is not much to add. If I am wrong this week Servio and his fan base have proven to be my Achilles heel.

(My results are based on the variables at 15:00 PM, 5,5 hours before the live show)

Update: For the fifth week in a row fan base seemed to be a good indicator to predict Secret Story. But for the second time the fan base of Servio has proven to be stronger. For the second time they have pulled Servio through. You could even say that the trend in twitter followers showed that Guido was losing terrain to Servio. This is the second time I am wrong. The second time because of the fan base of Servio. The next time Servio is nominated I won’t ignore that group of hard working people and their strong social media campaign again. Maybe this week was the turning point. Maybe from now on mobilization of the fan base will become more important.