Test Case: Secret Story NL prediction elimination #4

I have been predicting Secret Story NL for three weeks and while I stopped watching the television show, I will still keep predicting. It seemed necessary to stop watching, because my judgment got a little clouded at prediction #3. Because of this fatal mistake last week I lost my perfect score. This week, with Sofia, Sharon and Laura in the elimination round, I hope to finally score my third 100% score. But Sofia is causing trouble.

Stopped watching SSTNL
Yes, I stopped watching the show because last week I predicted Servio would leave the house, while the statistics showed Maik would leave. My prediction, for some reason, was that the fan base of Moniek would vote for Maik and keep him in the show. How naive. Maik clearly had the smallest fan base and in the second week of predicting I mentioned that this would be the most important variable in the first weeks. To not get my judgment clouded again and having no affection towards any candidates, I stopped watching.

Being Bold
So after making that mistake, this week wanted to go in bold. I’m wanted to neglect a lot of statistics and trust the one statistic that had proven to be stable for the last three week: fan base. The fan base for Sharon is smaller so according to this variable she will be eliminated.

But there is one big problem: Sofia wants to go home! Will het fan base let her go? This is an important question. Cause there could also be a sadistic group that could try to keep her in the television show. Sofia wants to go, so much is clear when you take a look at the twitter account of Sofia. It isn’t asking for support. Sharon’s twitter account definitely is. Therefor the results of this elimination round should be simple. You don’t need social media monitoring for this one.

My prediction:
1. Sofia (will be eliminated)
2. Sharon
3. Laura

(My results are based on the variables at 17:00 PM, 3,5 hours before the live show)

Update: Let’s quote myself: “You don’t need social media monitoring for this one.” I’m not proud about this prediction, but is was my third 100 percent score. Next week hopefully Secret Story NL still exists and the elimination will be a normal round. Next week it is finally time for boldness!