The Secret Story house is getting ready for its third elimination round tonight. Maik, Servio en Alexander are nominated and my prediction is that Servio will leave the house. I base my prediction on social media monitoring as I did for the last two weeks. My first and second prediction where spot on. Will I keep my 100 percent score or will this be the first week my prediction is off?
This week I want to focus a little more on the sentiment and the role this plays in the voting behavior of the audience. Therefor I will cut this very short and move directly to my prediction for tonight:
- Servio (will be eliminated)
- Maik
- Alexander
Bad Sentiment
Why will Servio leave the Secret Story NL house? It seems to be that sentiment plays a big part this week. According to a poll on FOK.nl Alexander is the most popular of the three men nominated to leave the house. Servio is the least popular. He is not the person that receives the least amount of vote, this is Maik, but most of the people want to see him leave.
The reasons people want to see Servio leave are because he has not been very friendly towards the favorite: Alexander. People think he is a gossip queen, ruins the game, sets people against each other and thought himself invincible because of his position amongst the women. On Twitter there is even a hastag called #exitservio. If the public wants to see somebody leave it is Servio. But the voting is about who gets the most votes. So how will Maik surpass Servio in that account?
Saving Maik
Maik has the least amount of followers and fans and therefor could loose this elimination round. But it will not be his fan base that will save him this time. His relationship with Monique will get him support from her fan base. The buzz around Maik and Servio seems to be even today, but most of Servio’s buzz is negative and Maik’s buzz is about him and Monique. People don’t want to split up this Secret Story couple and will try to keep Maik from leaving.
Next to all of this a lot of fans of Alexander want to see Servio leave the house. Alexander has gathered a lot of votes and will also see some support from the fan base who already voted for Alexander.
Where this comes down to
So Maik will be getting votes from his own fanbase, the fan base of Monique and from the people that want to see Servio leave. Servio will only receive votes from his own fanbase that is smaller than those other three combined. Alexander is too popular to get into the danger zone. Therefor Servio will have to leave the house and Maik will get out of this nasty position. I will update the results later today.
(My results are based on the variables at 14:30 PM, 6 hours before the live show)
Update: Trusting my results, variables and a bit of gut feeling this third week of Secret Story NL I predicted Alexander would get the most votes. And he did! Next was the battle between Maik and Servio. Had the viewers voted for Maik to keep him together with Monique? fI they did I would get my third 100 percent score in a row. The tension was rising like crazy. The final results where in. Maik had to leave! The final twitter campaign for Servio saved him in the end. The battle was hard and it gave Servio a last and final boost on which I should have counted. Better luck next time. I was wrong!