Last week I predicted Jurien had to leave the Secret Story NL house because he received the least amount of votes. I was right. Furthermore I predicted the whole top 3 spot on. A 100 percent score! This week Laura, Cynthia and Aafke have been nominated and I am going to try and get another 100 percent prediction score. Let’s see if I prevail yet again.

Volume versus sentiment
Although my most important mission might seem to be predicting the results of the elimination round, I am more interested in which variables are important in which stage in predicting this kind of television program. I expect the importance of different variables to change over time. Volume and reach may be important in the beginning as fan base will be even more important. Do viewers know who the candidate is? Did they get enough exposure or airtime to gather enough fans? Later on even the casual viewers will be acquainted with everybody and my expectation is that sentiment will be more important. Therefor last week I focused on volume and predicted that Jurien was to discrete to get enough votes.

Now that it is the second week, I expect volume and fan base still being the most important important variables opposed to the sentiment. Bad advertising en negative publicity can raise volume and reach, but will it be more important than the size of you fan base? Will the attention and the amount of exposure save Cynthia of the negative publicity? I frankly don’t know.

Interesting changes
In contrast to last week things have changed. The Secret Story NL website has changed its use of the Facebook like button. Last week you could trace how many likes a candidate individually had, but now it’s seems the like buttons is the same on all the pages of the website. Is this to make the website seem more popular? No matter the reason, this doesn’t help me on my prediction quest. But I will not be downcast.

My prediction for tonight:
1. Cynthia (will be eliminated)
2. Aafke
3. Laura

There is a lot of fuzz around Cynthia. Almost all other inhabitants of the Secret Story NL house are displeased with her behavior. In contrast to Gerard who generated a lot of fuzz last week Cynthia has been nominated not because she is a dangerous opponent, but because people dislike her. There seems to be only two ways out of the elimination round for her and get to the save zone. First people could start to feel compassion for her or second people could give her enough votes because she has by far the biggest fan base. The last option doesn’t seem to be the case, just like the first one doesn’t show in the sentiment. She simply has to much negative sentiment and the smallest fan base. This is why Cynthia will leave the Secret Story NL house tonight.

These stats of Twittercounter.com are a little bit off for Laura. Her real amount of followers today was 621 followers instead of the 526. It is always good to double check you variables!

Predicting the #2 and #3 is a lot harder. And when I say a lot, I mean a lot. In contrast to last week there is nobody that seems to stand out based on popularity. Normally I would have a look at the like buttons on the candidates their personal page, but these don’t give me the right information anymore. On Twitter Aafke and Laura are almost even on followers, but the @STT_Laura has never posted a tweet. Instead the buddy of Laura uses the Dutch social network Hyves. On the other hand Aafke already has her personal fan page. So the fan bases seem to be even between the two. There is one big difference though: airtime. Overall Laura got a lot more of attention throughout the first two weeks. Therefor the audience will feel a lot more acquainted to Laura and therefor she will receive the most votes.

To wrap it up: My prediction is that Cynthia will be eliminated because of a lack of reach, buzz volume, fan base and the amount of negative sentiment. Aafke has the biggest reach and fan base, but Laura has the biggest buzz volume and amount of airtime overall. This week will show us what is more important. Will it be reach and fan base or will it be buzz volume and airtime over the first two weeks. I’m sticking with buzz and airtime for this week and therefor with Laura to generate the most votes. Some people might not even know who Aafke is!

Do you think I am wrong? Do you think my reasoning is off? Or do you like my predictions and have some tips? Let me know down below in the comments or by tweeting or like this page. Logically the final results will follow in an update tonight around 22.00 PM GMT.

(My results are based on the variables at 4:30 PM, 4 hours before the live show)

Update: The results are in. At the end Laura was told she received 50 percent of the votes. Cynthia unfortunately had to leave the Secret Story NL house as predicted. This leaves Aafke in second place and it leaves me again with a spot on prediction and a 100 percent score using social media monitoring tools. Will I keep my perfect score up? I hope to see you next week and please spread the word of the existence of this blog! Thanks in advance.