More and more television shows use social media to engage with their viewers. This has got me wondering if I could predict the results of such television shows using social media monitoring tools. A month ago I did a test with Brandwatch for the finals of the Dutch television show The Voice of Holland and predicted the number 1 and 2 correctly. I never watched the program and didn’t even know the nr. 2 until my social media search results popped up.
This time I will try and predict the results of the weekly elimination rounds of the Dutch version of Secret Story. This week Gerard, Jurien and Philip are in the danger zone of being eliminated.
Only free tools
While I used the paid Brandwatch social media monitoring tool for The Voice of Holland, I want to experiment a little bit with free tools. This time I don’t want to spend money on tools like Brandwatch and Radian 6, so I want to see how far free tools can take me on the road of successfully predicting the elimination results. Therefore I will start this week using the following tools:
- Alterian SM2 free version up to 1000 results
- Klout.com
- Twittercounter.com
- Buzzpage on secretstory.nl
This week I will focus on followers, volume and sentiment.
My prediction for tonight:
- Jurien (will be eliminated)
- Gerard
- Philip
The variables show that Gerard has the most volume on social media, but he has the highest amount of negative sentiment. Philip’s sentiment is mostly positive and he also has the most followers and good volume. Jurien doesn’t have much volume and people don’t really have an opinion about him. Though a lot of people want Gerard to leave, he also has gathered a lot of people around him that want him to stay. This conflict could get him a lot of votes. And because the program is about who gets the most votes in favor of him or her, Gerard will have enough positive volume in comparison to Jurien. Philip will be the one least likely to leave according to the variables.
My prediction is that the buzz around Gerard will save him this time and Jurien will be eliminated because of the lack of buzz. I will update the results later today.
(My results are based on the variables at 4:30 PM, 3 hours before the live show)
Update: My prediction was right: Jurien had to leave the house and was eliminated. The percentages weren’t show at the end but the last intermediate score showed clearly that Philip was in the lead. Next week it is the the ladies turn to be eliminated. Hope to see you next week and let’s hope my next prediction is as spot on as the one this week!