Today is another day of elimination in the Secret Story NL house. In the last five weeks I predicted the elimination results of the television show. Three times I was right and two times I was wrong. Those two times I predicted the person with the most votes, but then another person was eliminated. But also the two times I predicted the wrong person to be eliminated, I predicted Servio would leave the Secret Story house. This week Servio is nominated again. And again I predict he will leave the house. Will it be a three strikes and out? Or will the fan base of Servio keep bothering me? …continue reading Test Case: Secret Story NL prediction elimination #6
Test Case: Secret Story NL prediction elimination #5
Another week has passed and it was another week without me watching Secret Story NL. In the third week I did a prediction partly based on compassion, got it wrong and therefor I stopped watching. I should be able to trust the social media monitoring tools. So last week I wanted to be bold. Follow the one variable I could have counted on for the past four week: fan base. But then Sofia wanted to leave the house and I couldn’t test if the variable is still the key indicator. This week the difference in fan base is a lot clearer than the first four weeks so the prediction of elimination round #5 should be very straightforward. We will see if I am right this week and if the fan base still is a clear indicator. …continue reading Test Case: Secret Story NL prediction elimination #5
Test Case: Secret Story NL prediction elimination #4
I have been predicting Secret Story NL for three weeks and while I stopped watching the television show, I will still keep predicting. It seemed necessary to stop watching, because my judgment got a little clouded at prediction #3. Because of this fatal mistake last week I lost my perfect score. This week, with Sofia, Sharon and Laura in the elimination round, I hope to finally score my third 100% score. But Sofia is causing trouble. …continue reading Test Case: Secret Story NL prediction elimination #4
Test Case: Secret Story NL prediction elimination #3
The Secret Story house is getting ready for its third elimination round tonight. Maik, Servio en Alexander are nominated and my prediction is that Servio will leave the house. I base my prediction on social media monitoring as I did for the last two weeks. My first and second prediction where spot on. Will I keep my 100 percent score or will this be the first week my prediction is off?
…continue reading Test Case: Secret Story NL prediction elimination #3
Test Case: Secret Story NL prediction elimination #2
Last week I predicted Jurien had to leave the Secret Story NL house because he received the least amount of votes. I was right. Furthermore I predicted the whole top 3 spot on. A 100 percent score! This week Laura, Cynthia and Aafke have been nominated and I am going to try and get another 100 percent prediction score. Let’s see if I prevail yet again.
Volume versus sentiment
Although my most important mission might seem to be predicting the results of the elimination round, I am more interested in which variables are important in which stage in predicting this kind of television program. I expect the importance of different variables to change over time. Volume and reach may be important in the beginning as fan base will be even more important. Do viewers know who the candidate is? Did they get enough exposure or airtime to gather enough fans? Later on even the casual viewers will be acquainted with everybody and my expectation is that sentiment will be more important. Therefor last week I focused on volume and predicted that Jurien was to discrete to get enough votes. …continue reading Test Case: Secret Story NL prediction elimination #2
Measuring influence using Klout
To become a master of influence you could always grab a copy of Robert B. Cialdini’s Influence: Science and Practice. There is a lot of useful stuff in there that will make you aware of the way you are influenced by marketing every single day. But it doesn’t really help us measuring influence within social networks. One popular solution for this problem seems to be a service called Klout. A score from 1-100 that tells you and everyone else how influential you are on the social web. …continue reading Measuring influence using Klout
Test Case: Secret Story NL prediction elimination #1
More and more television shows use social media to engage with their viewers. This has got me wondering if I could predict the results of such television shows using social media monitoring tools. A month ago I did a test with Brandwatch for the finals of the Dutch television show The Voice of Holland and predicted the number 1 and 2 correctly. I never watched the program and didn’t even know the nr. 2 until my social media search results popped up. …continue reading Test Case: Secret Story NL prediction elimination #1
Bit.ly and Goo.gl Plus
Measuring the amount of clicks you generate is simple using shortlink services like Ow.ly, Bit.ly or Goo.gl. They work a little bit like Google Analytics and you get insights about the clicking behavior of the people who follow you on Twitter or Facebook. But how do you measure the amount of clicks someone else generates? Like Google Analytics you can’t log into their account without committing a crime. But there is a simple solution when you competitors are using Bit.ly or Goo.gl shortlinks. This simple solution is the “+” sign. …continue reading Bit.ly and Goo.gl Plus